MNB 3.45% 5.6¢ minbos resources limited

Some have asked if this project is so important then why hasn't...

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    Some have asked if this project is so important then why hasn't the government helped to fund it. This week's update shows the Angolan government is doing so.
    "The Angolan Government has implemented two important measures thataim to make available approximately half a billion US dollars of credit toproducers primarily in and assisting in the development of the agriculturalsector"
    "The first such measure was prescribed by the Central Bank of Angola (BNA)under Aviso No.10 ‘Granting Credit to the Real Sector of Economy’, whichrequires financial institutions to grant a minimum quota of credit per year(based on the institution’s net assets) to borrowers in the sector, whichexplicitly includes fertilizer producers, with the cost of credit capped at 7.5%for loans and 10% for working capital facilities"

    MNB only requires a very small fraction of that US$500mill to make a very big difference to the Angolan agricultural sector's productivity.

    More specifically to MNB;
    "In his recent State of the Nation address, Angolan President Joao Lourenco,spoke directly to the importance of the Cabinda Phosphate Project, which hasdirectly enabled discussions with Angolan institutions."
    and;
    "The Cabinda phosphate project supplies a seasonal industry, and the Companyhas commenced discussions for a working capital facility with competing localbanks charged with deploying concessional funds from the Government to theagricultural value chain. Minbos intends to maximise its use of this funding. Thefunding explicitly considers factoring finance which the Company is exploringwith possible third-party warehouse operators."

    The following also gives MNB a strong moat against competitors - the company has helped protect that moat by applying for other significant, known phosphate deposits in the country;

    Presidential Decree no. 213/23 came into effect 1 January 2024 andprioritises local production over imports for certain goods, includingfertilizers. Authorisation for imported fertilizers is now required, which willonly be granted when the importer demonstrates it has exhaustedpurchasing opportunities with registered national producers.• This means phosphate fertilizer customers will be required to purchasefrom Minbos, as it is the only producer of phosphate fertilizers in Angola(currently 100% of such fertilizers are imported).

    Some investors might question why this support didn't arrive earlier. MNB only finished its DFS two years ago.
    A4N, has just received a large Australian government loan for its commercial scale project but only after after four years of waiting for customer off takes that had not arrived.

    MNB's progress on funding has been double the speed but some consider that to be red flags. MNB also secured its customer offtake in much less time than the time that A4N has been waiting for its offtakes to facilitate its financing. Different industries but A4N's 4 year wait for funding wasn't seen as a red flag with its near $1bill market cap so I don't see why MNB's 2 year wait for funding should be.
    The IDC loan has now opened the door to further lending from Angolan banks which is likely to follow much more smoothly with the Angolan government support to the agricultural sector and MNB specifically.

    Financing risk has dropped sharply, construction delayed to July but it still looks like next year (also should see a strong production profile;

    "The Company is planning all project activities to ensure the majorphosphate customer has the majority of its fertilizer requirements for the2025/26 growing season and in their warehouse by the end of December2025."

 
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