If would not be heresy to say this has as good chance to go to zero than it does to go up I think.
As you seem to suggest, and I tend to agree, nothing of note seems to have been achieved. So we would be fools to a degree, to think this will change and that they actually will do what they are supposed to do as far as projections have been made, especially regarding on time.
I will even add a conspiracy element to it, do some stakeholders, even far away, not want this to get up at all?? In other words do some simply not want the plant to be constructed for what it could reveal??
There seem to be two possible forces competing against each other, the possible of gains if it goes to plan( possible less chance) versus pure loss when it does not(possibly more chance). Of course for those getting a wage, and paid it is a little different.
If this is the case why does management not focus on improving the chances of this succeeding and working towards demonstrating this venture will not fall over??
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