MNB 1.79% 5.5¢ minbos resources limited

While I am trying to reply to as few as your posts as possible...

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    While I am trying to reply to as few as your posts as possible because I know it annoys other posters and wastes a lot of time, I think this one is worth replying to.
    You posted that the sp is low because of the delays, the very low cash position prior to the cr and I'll add because of the loss of confidence caused by those delays.
    Everyone here already knows that and the obvious fact is, that if that is why the sp is down, then that is already factored into the sp.
    When the sp was at 21c, a lot of positives were being factored in to the sp. That left the sp vulnerable to profit taking and to any negative developments like the delays that followed. It can be risky to buy near highs. The higher the sp goes, the more it can fall if something goes wrong.
    The reverse also applies. When a sp is heavily discounted to factor in the risks and negative developments like those above and it has dropped a long way, then the sp is set up for very large gains on any positive developments.
    While I never buy a stock just because it is down in the hope for a bounce, I do buy stocks when they are down for short term reasons, are deeply discounted and have a strong likelihood of positive developments.

    The financial pre-conditions to the IDC loan are;
    " - evidence of US$ 11 million of funding raised by borrower.
    - evidence of working capital facility of minimum US$ 10 million"

    The working capital facility might be the easiest and quickest to secure although it might need the other US$11mill approved first before getting signed off. After all, there is no need for a working capital facility until you have the project financed. So the US$11mill is probably the critical path now. The company has raised A$6mill in cash or near US$4mill which leaves US$7mill or A$11mill.
    A$11mill remains to be funded to secure the IDC loan versus a DFS NPV of A$310 mllion.
    In my mind, there is no way that won't happen.
    The Carrihno offtake is another precondition but should be very low risk given the work done to date by them on logistics and their need for the fertiliser that must be purchased locally if available.

    The other thing that is holding the sp down in the short term is obviously the cr with the options. As a few others have correctly pointed out, cr participants can sell even below 7c and still come out ahead because those options have value. I don't agree with that strategy because holding off a few months could see a 50% gain on those shares compared to selling them now. However some sophs are only interested in a quick flip.
    So while the sp has dropped below 7c now, that is not a red flag as you call it. It's a realistic and not unlikely outcome of the cr.
    It does also create a great buying opportunity for those that complained about the cheap 7c price. If anyone thinks it was too cheap, they now have the opportunity to buy below that price. Some are doing that now and others will continue to do so.
    Eventually the cr selling will pass and those buying low will reap the rewards.

 
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