You could say that most small cap speculative stocks have an 80%...

You could say that most small cap speculative stocks have an 80% chance of going bust but I'm not sure even that would be accurate.
The difference between this and the large majority of small cap speculative stocks is that Minbos is making progress and has ticked off many milestones that most small caps of this size have not.
DFS, ready market, mining approval, plant components paid for, delivered and ready to be assembled on finalised funding, major part of funding approved subject to standard conditions and a large customer offtake MOU which few would expect to not be made binding on completion of funding.
They also will have a strong moat against competing imported products and seeing as they're goung to be the only fertiliser producer, at least in the near future, they will have the lions share of the phosphate market.
I also think the green ammonia project is too good not to proceed. Even if it takes a JV or farm in agreement or some other arrangement if it's too much for Minbos to tackle on their own.
IMO this has a better than 80% chance of being a near term producer, not going bust but each to their own opinion.