This stock is not just about risks. It still holds the same...

This stock is not just about risks. It still holds the same projects.

The phosphate project financing is in fact well advanced.
The IDC loan for US$14mill was approved, with standard conditions including securing the remaining funding of US$11mill. The cr has raised A$6mill of that so far. The company is also talking to Angolan lenders. Importantly those lenders must reach a minimum quota of loans to the agricultural sector;
"The first such measure was prescribed by the Central Bank of Angola (BNA)under Aviso No.10 ‘Granting Credit to the Real Sector of Economy’, whichrequires financial institutions to grant a minimum quota of credit per year(based on the institution’s net assets) to borrowers in the sector, whichexplicitly includes fertilizer producers, with the cost of credit capped at 7.5%for loans and 10% for working capital facilities."

Carrinho has signed a binding MOU to purchase most of stage one production. Field trials are yielding very good results.
The IDC loan is likely to be followed by more offtakes to at least one South African customer.

Long lead time, major plant components are paid for, fabricated and delivered to site.

The following is another positive development protecting Minbos from competition from imported products and there are no other local producers which effectively gives Minbos a moat;
"Presidential Decree no. 213/23 came into effect 1 January 2024 andprioritises local production over imports for certain goods, includingfertilizers. Authorisation for imported fertilizers is now required, which willonly be granted when the importer demonstrates it has exhaustedpurchasing opportunities with registered national producers.• This means phosphate fertilizer customers will be required to purchasefrom Minbos, as it is the only producer of phosphate fertilizers in Angola(currently 100% of such fertilizers are imported).

I think there is too much negativity priced in and not enough of the positives.

A few don't want to consider the world class green ammonia project until the phosphate is fully financed and under construction. That doesn't mean the GA has no value but the market is not currently giving it any value.
The stock is trading at too big a discount to the phosphate and the GA is effectively priced at zero. That can change rapidly with the right news flow.