MNB (ASX) Ann: US$14m Loan Facility Approved &amp; Firm Bids for Placement

Originally posted by chuk: ↑

In hindsight, it is easy to agree that a cr plus spp for around US$10mill to satisfy one of the IDC preconditions would have been a better outcome.
However, the initial trading halt was around 7 weeks prior to the approval of the the IDC loan so it was unlikely that the preconditions on the loan were known when the company went into trading halt. Also, a spp costs more, (normally) takes much longer than a cr and the outcome is difficult to predict. Therefore it's normally likely to be more dilutive because the company might need to do the minimum it needs as a cr and then raise more than it needs through the more unpredictable spp.
In this case, I agree that still would have been a better outcome without the options but again that's with hindsight.
The approach to Minbos by the interested company that resulted in the long suspension was unexpected and that long suspension with no outcome from that approach was the main reason that the oversubscribed initial cr with no attaching options deterioted into a cr with options and for a lower amount after the cornerstone chose not to participate and then was not replaced by an equal sized investment in the cr by the company that made the approach.
That was an unfortunate series of events but if anyone chose to sell due to that cr, that's a choice they made. They were not forced to sell.
I chose to sell my cr shares at 8c because I didn't really want to invest more long term as I had more than enough already. I chose not to opt out after the long suspension partly to support the company and in my case, the options did get me over the line to not opt out after my circumstances changed during the suspension. That's just me though and I agree the options might not have been needed. Who knows though, with the long suspension and no outcome from that approach, some others may have opted out without the options being added.
So with hindsight, yes a spp would have been a much better outcome but no one had the benefit of that hindsight.
Talk of sinister intentions by the cornerstone is a completely unsubstantiated theory by another poster putting seeds of doubt in investors minds. Repeat those theories often enough and some might start to dwell on them. If anyone buys or sells because of what they read on HC that too is their choice.
Apart from the unfortunate series of events that changed the outcome of the cr for the worse, doubts about funding the project are another seed planted through HC posts. The IDC loan was approved, even if it did take longer than anticipated and the company has announced to investors that loans are now available and being sought through Angolan banks that have a quota for minimum levels of lending that must be made to the agricultural sector. That indicates a higher probability of those loans also being approved.
I would expect the company has some idea on how long the Angolan bank process will take and I hope that there is enough buffer to make sure there are no further delays. The ideal outcome from here is a quick approval of those loans, otherwise I would still prefer another placement of shares, preferably to a cornerstone investor. Even with the extra dilution, the very low mc and getting to production on time or earier would still allow for big upside to the sp from here and prevent the risk of further downside through another delay. I don't accept the theory of this project not getting fully funded. The only question for me is when that will occur.

Expand

Even with the extra dilution, the very low mc and getting to production on time or earier would still allow for big upside to the sp from here and prevent the risk of further downside through another delay. I don't accept the theory of this project not getting fully funded. The only question for me is when that will occur.

The market does not share your confidence of when as opposed to will

SP now below 6c - Well below latest CR

Very little interest at well below latest CR - - one would think that at these levels it would be over subscribed buying like the $10m Initial CR

Hence only $6m raised after 7 weeks in suspension

Even large Top 20 holders don't seem interested at these prices

The SP performance since CR will be examined carefully by any funding providers to assess level of risk etc

IMO

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	99963	5.6¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.058	252589	4
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0.060	100000	1
0.061	156286	2
0.063	50000	1

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(20min delay)
Last 5.6¢		Change -0.002(3.45%)		Mkt cap ! $48.44M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
5.6¢	5.6¢	5.5¢	$9.232K	166.2K


Last 5.6¢		Change -0.002 ( 1.82 %)
Open	High	Low	Volume
5.6¢	5.6¢	5.5¢	86140
Last updated 15.37pm 03/05/2024 ?

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