PIM 0.00% 6.2¢ pinnacle minerals limited

You clearly know very little about the uranium market or its...

  1. 1,771 Posts.
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    You clearly know very little about the uranium market or its fundamentals or maths.

    Current worldwide U supply is ~130 million lbs and current worldwide demand (NOT from SMRs but existing reactor fleets) is approx 205 million lbs.
    So there is a worldwide deficit of 75 Million lbs. which is what is driving the price, nothing to do with "speculation" fuel buyers buy when they need U as the cost of the fuel is only a small % of the total costs of running a nuclear power plant and having a nuclear plant " turned off" is something in the order of $1 Million a DAY in costs.

    None of those numbers above take into consideration future demand for uranium and it takes 5-10 years+ for any new mine to go from development to production.

    Kazatomprom is actually forecasting a drop in their production over the next two years from issues in getting sulphuric acid...
    https://*********.com.au/kazatomprom-uranium-production-goals-hit-sulphuric-acid-shortage/

    So they certainly won't be increasing production at all, actually the opposite which will further exacerbate the supply/demand deficit and drive prices even higher!

    And Cameco is also having "challenges" with their Cigar Lake mine and mill. So I don't see them "flooding the market" any time soon.

    Also SPUT was out of the market not buying any pounds, trading at a discount to NAV for a big part of 2023 yet the price of U still goes from ~$60/lbs to ~90/lbs....how could that be?? again simple maths re above. Of course they did hoover up a lot of pounds mainly in 2021-22 but the price action last year on very little buying from utilities tells the story.

    SMR demand in the future will further add to the demand equation and not to mention China's massive nuclear build out over the next 10 years, which are not SMRs but conventional large capacity reactors

    "China has 21 nuclear reactors under construction which will have a capacity for generating more than 21 gigawatts of electricity, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. That is two and a half times more nuclear reactors under construction than any other country.India has the second largest nuclear buildout right now, with eight reactors under construction that will be able to generate more than six gigawatts of electricity."

    UK, france, india, Japan and a whole host of countries are also increasing their nuclear capacity.

    So based on that I reckon the future of Uranium isn't what you've described at all and you should stick to lithium.



 
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