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Ann: US CPT Code Reimbursement for TALi Detect, page-373

  1. 883 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 524
    Okay some of the numbers being thrown around need a bit more in-depth explanation around them. If you're assuming that NHL will get the whole 8-10m screenings in the US per year that's a bit on the bullish side lol.

    Let's say in the US they get 10% of 10m initially whilst the business is growing and being implemented. The kid needs to be screened twice - which going off the numbers provided is $105.34 AUD. We don't know the split yet but let's say NHL gets 30% and the US companies have to do the heavy lifting, implementing, and generating revenue for their percentage.

    1,000,000*$105.34*0.30 = $31,602,000*0.70(for company tax) = $22,121,400 net profit from the US alone and this is probably made off assumptions on the lower end, especially for the percentage cut.

    Using a P/E of 15 (ASX average). $22,121,400*15 = $331,821,000 market cap. This shows there is plenty of upside for the company. They have stated that they won't raise for the next year but you never know with ASX specs. They wouldn't need to raise much more if they did decide to do another one.

    This is the US market alone. They have approvals for other huge markets in place. Will be interesting to see how fast they can gain traction in each market. Add net profit from the other countries and the market cap obviously gets much higher. The great thing about this company and RAP is that they're highly scalable, low overheads, and easy to distribute business models.

    Be careful of people saying NHL will be making $946m revenue from the US alone. It seems like a solid little business, just needs to prove it can make revenues which it has a good chance of achieving. Plenty of upside even with the numbers I have provided and I wouldn't be surprised to see the SP run harder.

    1.2 billion shares have been traded on the ASX and Chi X in the last two days. The float is 650m. Crazy.




    Last edited by runaway: 26/10/19
 
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