Morning team PTX..all in my ownopinion of course, but below is...

Morning team PTX..all in my ownopinion of course, but below is how I perceive the announcement from yesterday.

This assumes of course that we end up with a positive outcome of the currentPTX100 expansion cohort to feed into the PTCL market quickly.

Some assumptions:

• Based on my research there are around 85,000 lymphoma cases in the US each year (and growing)
• It is estimated that10,000-15,000 of these are T-cell lymphomas (and growing)
• Of these, it is estimated that between 2,500-3,500 are PTCL (and growing)
• We assume current standard of care provides for 3-4 months of additional time for the patients
• We estimate that each treatment costs ~U$500K (~A$680K at longer term typical FX of 0.72)
• PTX has 654.3 million shares on issue

How I personally, and conservatively, interpret this is if PTX100 is successful and we can and we can go tomarket in the US for PTCL based upon the above assumptions (noting that TCL and other cancers would add to this scenario):

• Assume we can capture 25% of the PTCL market, so say 750 of the ~3,000/years
• Assume we provide a lower priced treatment of say U$150K (~A$210K)/treatment for 12-months (not 3-4months)
• This alone provides us with~U$112M/year (~A$155M/year), or equivalent to around A$0.24/share in revenue ‘foryear one at the conservative values above’
• BP have been known to pay 3-4 x Annual Revenues so again if we are conservative for PTCL in year 1 at above assumptions only, that’s~U$450M (~A$622M)
• We have a market cap of A$121M…

Some other thoughts:

• What if ~80% of the patients go into year 2 with the same revenue
• Add to that the ‘new’ patients each year
• Add to that the increased share of market for a treatment that works and is safe (I used 25% above but what if that was 75%, etc.,)
• Add to that the global market (ie. above is US market/assumptions only)
• Add to that the broader basket of TCLs…etc., for PTX100
• Add to that PTX200
• Add to that CellPryme-M
• Add to that CellPryme-A
• Add to that OmniCar

In summary, the PTCL market is indeed very small relative to the total market for cancer therapies but in my opinion Steve is right to chase the fastest path to market and bring forward revenue generation, but that revenue should grow quickly and organically. If this ‘small outcome’ should come to pass, that will allow us to accelerate everything else and totally de-risk our current investment; and then blue sky ahead!

All my own thoughts and research.