Ann: USD120M Offer to Acquire 25% Interest in Malaysian Entities, page-101

if u annualize aud 33mil. Assume full ownership by OMH of the smelting assets before the end of the year. FY2022 profits from smelting alone would be about 132mil usd, or 186mil aud. Say tshipi and the trading assets together contribute about 20mil. thats 205million aud. at a 635million aud market cap. PE of 3. At 75% operating capacity. This is a relatively conservative assumption

Thermal coal prices remain elevated for 2023, as per IEA's comments, the shortage and volatility will likely last for 3 years. So there is a chance that we will see heightened electricity prices until 2025.

say they add another 150k tonnes per year, operating margin of 650 usd per tonne? profits in aud would be about 350mil aud. PE of 1-2.

These are of course unnaturally high prices because of the shortages, over the long run we are unlikely to see 300mil aud profits a year, but even if omh made 80million, as they did last year. At a market cap of 635million aud, we are not paying an exorbitant price for company with a decent low cost moat. In reality omh made about 115million aud in profits without the mining assets in 2021or a PE of 5 to 6. AT 75% operating capacity,

Maybe some ppl are going to say that what if prices go to what it was in 2019 and 2020?

The cyclicality of the commodities market often means that sometimes the prices of products go below their cost of production. Assuming that prices will forever remain below the cost of production is crazy. Over the long run, prices will move to the marginal cost of production of the most expensive producer of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. The marginal producer is the producer that produces its ferroalloys using electricity sourced from coal fired power plants. Coal power plants have a maintenance and operation cost similar to hydropower, however they need to purchase coal to power the plant. Hydro electricity has no such costs.