Yes it will be exciting over the next couple of weeks and...

Yes it will be exciting over the next couple of weeks and months.

With an agreed term sheet for AUD50m and a month or two to align docs for approx AUD200m senior debt with this prepayment, we won't have too long to wait for an answer to your question.

Just as a guide, the SP closed at 16c the day the Glencore LOI announcement was made, up from 12.5c the day before THEN the fateful credit raise at 11.5c and recession hysteria swept the news hitting the copper price and the market sentiment nose dived and punters punished CYM management for the timing of this CR. and so on

If the credit raise was announced along with the Glencore LOI announcement rather than one day after, I am confident our SP will not have been punished as badly from this 16c level.

We are now at a point where analysts are seeing the inflation rate coming down, the end of interest rate increases is on the horizon, China has quietly abandoned its zero covid policy and the copper supply/demand imbalance is widening. If Bazza can lock up the senior debt this month then the bad taste from the ill timed credit raise should be washed away very quickly.

I am not sure when BUT i am confident that the SP will hit 16c in the very short term and 21c in the short term, I believe the time frame is all dependent on copper price now.

Just some fundamentals to back this up.

At the current Cu price of 8450 USD/T and AUD/USD 0.67 the FCF of Nifty should be approx AUD96m pa as per the Nifty restart study.
adding back Interest and Tax and conservatively assuming D and A is zero in the FCF figure,
we get EBITDA of AUD173m hence earnings of 13 cents per share per annum

EPS of 13 cents pa in 18 months time, makes our current SP of 10.5 cents look ridiculous.

Put a conservative multiple of 3 with the EPS of 13 cents and we get a 39c SP when Nifty is in full production being approx 1st July 2024 (allowing 6 months slippage etc)

This 39c SP is based on just the Nifty restart and no value added for any other CYM projects.(or extending Nifty operations and utilising the remaining 90% of Nifty Cu resource)

Hence a 21 cent share price in the short term doesn't seem too far fetched IMO.


GLTAH