re: Ann: Valad Investor Presentation - Cash A... $1.80 is too...

re: Ann: Valad Investor Presentation - Cash A... $1.80 is too cheap IMO, but a low ball first round offer has got to be expected, 20$ discount to NTA and 30%+ to NAV is a steal.

New CEO is on the right track but surely if they liquidated all assets we'd get more than $1.80. I mean heck sell Europe to Hurley for the 50m pounds he was offering and that would increase the NTA - making $1.80 a 30% discount to NTA. (rubbery numbers dyor)

This deal hinges on whether Orbis and the other majors will support it, I'd like to see some poker faces by Orbis (C'mon Simon Malais you're the man) and push this offer to the fairer price of $2

The market will be a good guide, with $1.80 on the cards in July the time value of this now is 1.75 depending on your interest rate assumption and settlement (for eg 1.75, assume 3 months at 8%pa gives 1.79) and factor in the risk of it falling over.

But if the market anticipates a higher offer VPG may trade at a small premium to 1.80. We may even see some arbitrage players move in on this in the same way that AEJ (alinta) traded low 9c and then crept up to 9.9c with the 10c offer on the table - then a cheeky poker punt by a NY hedge fund that had accumulated a chunk demanded more before quietly accepting 10c and still making a killing on the arbitrage. Poker play time

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