Yep. It’s hard to know what cashflow will be as there’s no clear...

Yep. It’s hard to know what cashflow will be as there’s no clear line of sight on price agreed with AGL, what the toll costs will be and what amortisation of the prepayment for Vali will be.

My hope is that it will wash its own face and the cream will start to come from Odin. I’m not expecting any amazing numbers short term. I just want to avoid large cash outflows until we’re a more meaningful producer.

There’s no reason why they can’t gross $12GJ on Odin ie $15 less say $3 toll (rough guess). Less overheads and potential interest on the debt line and the business will still be making pretty good cashflow in about 12 months. That will increase as Vali contracted gas and the AGL prepayment wash through.

Either way I see this being taken out once it’s more derisked and producing more volume. There’s very little chance that this stays a 3 way JV until the end.

We’re the obvious first domino to fall and the irony is we are valued lower than VEN when you could mount an argument that there should be an M&A premium in the price.

It’s just unfortunate that KEY are selling to fund their big Magellan play. Without that selling we’d be significantly higher. The irony is they need the capital rather than MEL is in trouble. That’s a great opportunity for retail though.