The big takeaway for me was the two tranche structure. AGL to recover the prepayment through 9 PJ of gas, spread across the length of the contract. 2PJ is 5.17mmscfd...which will be Vali-1 and a tiny bit of Vali-3. The residual production can then all be sold into the higher priced tranche.
Logically you'd think that they'd be wanting to recover $15m plus interest, so likely a $2 discount from market price for the $9pj. I'd imagine that would be circa $8, but possibly higher.
Id imagine they'll produce at around 12mmscfd, so 5PJ per annum. 2pj at $8 and $3pj at 10....for $46m gross revenue. I can't see processing and other costs at any more than $4...and in that scenario would see net profit to the JV of $26m, or $6.5m net to MEL. $6.5m is around 0.6cps, which could sustain a 0.2cps dividend and leave $4.5m for operations. Juicy.
The big takeaway for me was the two tranche structure. AGL to...
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