So obviously i got the email last night.
Converting 12MMcfd to Gj
Assuming 1mmcfd =0.0012 Pj, 1 Pj = 1,000,000 Gj, life expectation of the wells is 30 years
0.01434*10*365*1000000 = $52,000,000 per year.
Over a 30 year life at a discount rate of 4% NPV is $900,000,000.
So Mel owns 25% of that, meaning this could easily be a 10x.
Conversions from.
https://www.santos.com/conversion-calculator/
*365 is not going to happen so play with your own numbers there, I would expect 350 operational days per year
** $10/Gj was used as this is what I can find, namely AGL
*** discount rate will obviously vary, but future markets don't see rates going beyond 4% but this is a risk to the model
**** Initial cost was arbitrarily put as $10,000,000 as that felt right. Can someone more knowledgable please correct me
***** This values revenue from Odin at zero as I don't know.
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