At the moment, it looks like neither of these companies are going to get anywhere near 50.1%.
I imagine they are both very frustrated, because it was clear that neither really wanted to pay more than $1, and the Cardinal directors reinforced that by accepting $1, and yet not many shareholders are selling to either Nord or Shandong. They seem to be trying to wait out shareholders, and at the same time outfox each other. It's a crazy game.
Obviously, one of them could take the game by the scruff of the neck and win, but they are both playing too defensive to do that. They must be negotiating surely. Is there any guarantee that Nord will sell their 30% if shandong get 50.1% ? I don't think so. And they may even insist on board representation instead, for a period of time at least. It could all get very messy in a corporate sense.
What price would Nord accept for their 30%, if Shandong and the Ghana Engineers join forces, I doubt it would be short of $2, and is maybe even more. And what price would Shandong accept for their shares?
It's like one almighty standoff at the moment and it's difficult to see how this will resolve in the end. Perhaps one way of doing it is for Nord and Shandong and the Engineers to form a joint subsidiary Ghanaian company, with a 40-40-20 split, at least in the interim, to get things started, and then see how things work out between them over the next 2 years.
It's a fascinating battle to watch.
Gw
CDV Price at posting:
$1.08 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
