People tend to forget this is a $100M market cap company trying to expand into a relatively unknown sector. It may be known in the current environment in its current state, but the extent it could be used in the future is endless. Nobody is doubting it will be incredibly lucrative should you capitalise as the right company addressing this new market.
What I always end up with asking is "WHY in particular is Vection the company to do this?". Previously you could look at the different sectors in the total TCV pie chart and relatively judge what was going on, or atleast attempt to judge which field was expanding the quickest, look at some of the logos of the partners they has in each field etc etc. Try and put some things together at the least. You could even see on twitter the "updates" on the trial in the hospital system. To me that product made sense, however when will be updated about that? It was meant to be company changing if it took off? Now they appear to have removed the breakdown entirely and to me appear to be giving less specific information? Why do that when you're approaching a crucial time, as said above if the revenue turns out to be there, the future returns could be very rewarding. Without those more specific details from vection themselves you look elsewhere for clues, the director decreasing his share in the last CR is not a good start.
The other thing that is still relatively unknown or yet to be demonstrated is the ability to scale and grow towards profitability. At the end of the day the revenue is increasing but they still lose money... and they need to maintain a MC of 100M, whilst proving they can successfully acquire and scale. Currently to me (and the market in general by the looks) they haven't proven that... YET. But they certainly still can. We need to see how revenue growth vs costs progresses as they attempt to expand amd grow. I congratulate you if you can do calculations to predict where you think this is going at the current time. And I'm not talking about "predicted revenue was $XX million multiplied by our strike rate last quarter equals it should be this XX".
More so I'd like to know what sector/s is generating the most revenue and at what costs. Why is it predicted that our growth will continue in that sector at its current rate? What strategies are we pursuing in each sector/ in general other than searching for acquisitions?
Usually in a situation like this you have an idea of what's valuable/makes the most money. This is not completely unreasonable to expect for a $100M company and is usually quite accessible in tech. Is it the initial sale of the headsets that's the most profitable, if it's the subscriptions that are profitable, what is the average profit per headset/subscription user? So you could figure out what each monthly subscription was worth per headset etc etc and attempt to then track a trajectory of current vs future growth rates if you wanted to have an overall view without being focused on sectors.
I'll leave my rambling at that, but without that type of information I struggle to see how people put a $ value on it now or for the future. Atleast with the information I can find o should say. Again, which is why I always end up circling back to waiting to see the numbers.
There is no doubt Vection can talk the talk, shown by the rapid increase in SP prior to the CR. Now is time they show us they can deliver. I really hope they can, because as said before, IF they are the company to capitalise on this future market, they will be huge and this will still be the early stages.
Goodluck
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