Thanks for the update and details. It is above my pay grade, unfortunately.
The Moomba capacity is not the key volume issue for the Vali JV, it is the capacity of the line from Beckler to Moomba. At this stage, this is the key determinant of volumes that can be quickly sent thru for processing. Added volume can come in a couple of ways, i.e expansion of Beckler line or utilisation of one of the other lines eg Dullingari, which would adequately take the added volume with a capital cost offset for the JV. My best guess is that this gas region will contain more gas and a simple line or lines to Beckler will not suffice over the medium term and added pipeline capacity will come. This would be nice if it was funded from cash flow. Note, the AGL contract speaks for only 8% of the Vali reserves, with Odin still to be added (eg watch this space).
Secondly on the time delay. This has been coming for a while. The original deals were due to be signed in late 2021 with the first gas by mid-2022 if you recall. These deals were all delayed till April or so, and it would be near impossible to compress this 6-month construction phase into 3 months, thus the delay.
I'm surprised that it has been missed by most on here, as the JV has been silent on timing for the last month or so. Sorry if that sounds harsh, but it was there for all to see.
Gas prices are high, they are under committed to gas contracts and the gas will flow soon. It still looks like a great investment to me.
Cheers, AL
MEL Price at posting:
2.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)