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15:17
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Originally posted by Ajax:
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Strike Resources announced a maiden shipment or iron ore from Peru today (with $4.5m payment coming to the company yet the share price has been drifting down). Interesting comments on iron ore on the Strike Resources thread which are equally applicable to Venture Riley (except that Venture is not just an iron ore play). I haven't run a sensitivity analysis for Riley and various iron ore prices for 57% fe but they are equally at the mercy of the iron ore price if it falls under $90/tonne. The problem I see with this stock is they are so similar to what happened with atlas iron. Atlas iron shot up past $4 a share then the iron ore price fell hard and they were selling at a loss then they were gone soon after. This stock can only be seen as a short term investment due to the iron ore price. 15 months ago the IO price was $60US/T and that is just as likely to happen again in the coming months to a year or so and that is when this company will be in strife. Super cycles happen once every 13 to 17 years. The last one was 2007 and did not last that long and now we are coming out of a super cycle and iron ore prices are falling to I suspect about $120US/T or lower by years end. The next year might see it fall harder to $60US/T So this can only be seen as a short term investment. Maybe the stock will hit $1 and that would be bail time. They will need to get their cost price down to about $25US/T. FMG cost price in the early days was about $60US/T then they drove it down hard when the iron ore price fell but atlas couldn't do that and they soon disappeared. "
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Do you realise Fe isn't the commodity that VMS is ultimately going to mine? Riley and livingstone is a means to an end to get some cash and capext for the bigger Mt Lindsay project.
