Ann: VHM Signs Binding Offtake Agreement, page-9

Hi 2ic,

Interesting to see the Adamas REO pricing forecasts that the Goschen DFS was based on again, unfortunitly for all of us investors in the RE space, Adamas' crystal ball gazing appears to have been somewhat optimistic...their 2024 base case forecast for 61.4% TREO Goschen REMC was US$13.12/kg, Ex Works China, inclusive of 13% VAT., whereas the current price for 60% TREO monazite concentrate quoted on giti.si - see link) is US$5.51/kg EXW China, inc. 13% VAT. Ex. the 13% VAT (the supplier realised price) would be US$4.88/kg.

The 60% TREO MonConc. price has actually declined almost 50% since early 2022 vs. Adamas' forecast of an 18% increase for the Goschen REMC pricing over the same period.

It would be interesting to see what would become of Goschen's forecast IRR of 33% (pretax) for phase 1 (the RE concentrate, not the mixed RE carbonate phase 1A. product) if the current MonCon pricing trend was applied... then take into account the additional costs associated with handling and shipping a Class 7 Radioactive product from Victoria to China, which according to the Goschen process flowsheet involves loading trucks directly from a REMC stockpile, same as the HMC product...not a lot of radioactive OH&S apparently factored in.

One thing for sure, the margins would be markedly skinnier than those projected in the DFS, making financing and FID more challenging ...GLTAH!

p.s. I hold ATR...Cheers.