Hmm, I rather think that everything goes on sale at the same...

Hmm, I rather think that everything goes on sale at the same time for a few weeks if overvalued tech blows up. However, you are probably right that MFG and other professional fund managers will eventually shine brighter than pure growth as money is pushed from growth to defensive. We have an aging population in the G20 and I don't think those folks will want to risk it as they move into later years. I feel, there will always be a strong desire to have someone else watch over their nest or at least half the nest while they age.

Index ETF's and growth stocks have done well over the years when the market is booming and the supply of money has been immense. If and only "if" central banks attempt to quell high inflation, growth stocks will find it harder to finance their operations and be a lot less desirable to investors. Until then, a sensible investor needs investments in both sectors. A tech blowup isn't necessarily guaranteed but would create demand for active manager investing.

Congratulations to all those that scored MFG under $20. Flashing large sums of cash on a 30+% down day isn't for the faint hearted. There is still the downside risk of seeing $15-$17 next year but a bounce looks likely. I still feel the exit of SJP was more about fees and inclusion of ETF's into their offerings than the performance projections of MFG funds. I doubt the whole industry will immediately follow but they certainly will keep an eye on STP. There has got to be a whole swathe of retail and institutions who wonder why spend all that extra cash actively managing when performance is no better, especially so in the last few month/years. The managed investment industry needs a swing to active management over index and growth etf's to keep the industry alive. Without a "tech blowup" as you put it I am afraid there will be no such swing and fee income paid to MFG will decline as FUM dry up or stagnate.