Full disclosure.
I sit on an investment comittee and I'm one of a few people who are responsible for making investment allocation decisons. Magellen funds were very much on the short list 12 months, they are no longer. I haven't allocated to them in over 12 months.
I can summarise my and (our views). Magellen are too concerned with whats happening in the world and not concerned enough with whats a good investment holding macro factors constant.
I watched the recent video, and it was actually quite good, up until he started talking about Iran and oil prices. I thought, "who the phuck cares?" it's franky irrelevant what could happen in every corner of the world, you cant and never will be able to control for macro factors.And assigning % probabilites is completely arbitary and an overestimation of ones ability.
Ask yourself, would Peter Lynch or even Warren Buffet have made the same predictions? Absolutely not, it's an excuse. If you sit in a lab and look at different coranviurs strains all day, all you will ever think about is coronavirus. Hamish is far far too distracted. He is a hammer and everyting looks like a nail.
Unfortunately this is all relevant to MFG and its share price. What attracted me to MFG was the IB vision, some PE investments, Investment banking and the funds mangement. Unfortunately, as has be pointed out the IB part of the business depends on options, and the MFG shares are under a huge cloud right now. These guys were the best of the best and brought across a huge number of high quality insto clients. I know Insto's that absolutely swear by them. However, if hamish can't turn the funds management business around the team will leave.
There is a lot on the line right now, we are at an inflection point. The next 12 months will make of break MFG. The odds are honestly against Hamish, I'm not sure if they can turn the ship.
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