No idea why the reply isn't working but this is to Adama Some of...

No idea why the reply isn't working but this is to Adama

Some of this is as you describe, but Hamish himself is placing in my opinion an overly large weighting on covid as a potential red flag in financial markets. No, its not just macho idiocy, part of the reason the stock has performed so poorly was his focus on this as a risk factor despite the fact he's virtually misread the effects on markets throughout the entire pandemic. He misread the potential effects on markets, but most importantly the effects of interest rates and stimulus as a reaction to them. This stock is becoming more and more a gamble partly because Hamish is taking *risks* such as large cash allocations and buying defensive stocks because he's gambling on macro economic events and coronavirus based events that didn't or haven't borne out. In particular high cash allocation in an aggressive bull market is a risk of permanent capital loss in itself, and its quite clear that Hamish is placing too much emphasis on problems that don't exist or are incredibly unlikely.

When I say that the pandemic is very rapidly moving towards a point where its no longer a crisis, that's an objective prediction one way or the other, not a subjective or moral claim. This is borne out in the data from early Omicron outbreaks like in South Africa which Hamish seemed to be oblivious to. I know others would disagree, but a fund manager that is making predictions based on potential virus based outcomes should be able to have meaningful understanding of and personal research into this and they don't need to be a virologist to do so. I didn't hear that in his recent interview.

Yes, this is a meaningful discussion. Magellan may not be a travel stock for example so it might not be immediately clear, but the fed and market are going to react in predictable ways with reference to the extremely likely dropping of restrictions and return to normalcy in the next 3 months from the parabolic, rapid rise and fall of Omicron cases and incoming broad natural immunity.

If we want to talk about "macho idiocy" I think one could potentially say the same about Hamish talking about "sleeping easy" because of high cash positions and defensive allocations in the most aggressive bull market in recent history and not expressing any regret over the issue. This is absolutely a potential red flag for future movement of this company.