VNL 0.00% 13.0¢ vinyl group ltd

Some thoughts from me:1. Brag's $334K NPAT probably gets VNL...

  1. 59 Posts.
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    Some thoughts from me:

    1. Brag's $334K NPAT probably gets VNL close to profitable at a group level, which is reassuring.

    2. Not that it matters much now - the amounts Richard White & Songtradr have put in mean VNL is now essentially too big to fail. They will invest more to keep VNL going if necessary.

    3. VNL is also now too big/complex to become just another Songtradr product which should reassure shareholders (Songtradr could still buy the individual businesses or whole company - it might be a backdoor for Songtradr to join the ASX)

    4. VNL is no longer a nanocap-type share, despite its tiny MC. It's basically being built up through M&A into a smallcap. I would expect the acquisitions to continue.

    5. VNL is also basically a private company at this point given the miniscule % of its shares available to buy on the open market. I wouldn't be surprised if VNL delists to save costs. This also means the MC is now disconnected from the actual value of the company. The actual value of the company (ie. what it could be expected to sell for) is much higher than the MC now.

    6. The play here isn't really about synergies/cost efficiencies (although they certainly help). It's about using a roll-up strategy to build a vertically-integrated group that will be attractive to PE in the future.

    Having Richard White & Paul Wiltshire involved in this vehicle is reassuring - they are safe pairs of hands who who know what they are doing & are capable of making big deals.

    My personal take is the Brag acquisition signifies the start of a completely different VNL entity which will have a pretty exciting future. It's going to be long-term play (again don't be surprised if VNL delists & goes private again) but the upside could be good.
    Last edited by Don TeBeau: 21/12/23
 
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