Ann: Visual copper intersected over 933.6m Bottletree Hole 5, page-144

Esra there is no chance we will see double digit core inflation with the softening of Oil going under $80USD/barrel this week with the UK-induced volatility.

While unit economics on specific basket items are continuing their price pressures (ie in 15-30% range as you pointed out) inflation monitors only a core set of items and prices for these have not continued to grow at the pace you suggest.

You're defintely right that extra mortgage repayments will slow down discretionary spending than our UK or US counterparts as our mortgage sector only has 20% fixed rates. This works in our favour to help tame inflation sooner than other jurisdictions. This is why I dont think we will see the 10%+ inflation we are seeing overseas. Overseas a far larger segment of the mortgage books are fixed for 30yr terms and so the cash rate doesnt affect household disposable income as quickly given their mortgage expense does not change.

I was intrigued by your feeling about spending happening on credit - the latest RBA statistics do not support this. Month on Monthly credit spending actually went down 0.2% on the latest monthly data suggesting people are slowing debt funded purchases and dipping into savings achieved during the era of covid/mortage support. The average aussie household was 7 months ahead on mortgage repayments in mid 2021. I suspect some of them are drawing down on inflated equity valuations or the cash set aside in offset accounts.

There will, no doubt. be further pain to come. but we've already started to enter restrictive policy settings for the cash rate. The market has priced a terminal rate of 4.35% as of close yesterday so still a long way to go in rate hikes until mid next year....

hope that all helps validate your feeling and provides some context for my opposing views on some of the points you raised....