I noticed that Super Soco was trending in the Spanish-language news on Google overnight, though sadly, not for a good reason. Apparently, the general manager of Super Soco in the Dominican Republic went missing in Santo Domingo during stormy weather yesterday. Hopefully he is ok.
I have been reading through the posts here since the release of that quarterly report announcement last Monday, and intended to voice some of my thoughts on the latest update, however I haven't been able to find the time, until now.
Actually, on most points, there isn't really much I can add to what has already been said here.
The one aspect of the announcement that I felt I might be able to shed some light on relates to the second last paragraph in the first page of the announcement, in the section mentioning (I believe for the first time in a VMT announcement) the CKD kits being sold in India.
Perhaps understandably, this seems to have prompted some excitement on this thread, however, this news probably isn't quite as novel as it appears on first glance.
Although the company has never previously said much publicly about this line of business, it is very likely that Vmoto has been supplying these CKD kits to India for years.
Back in 2020, just prior to the years of covid-chaos, I noticed an article pop up on an Indian website featuring a scooter called the 'Bird ES1' scooter, which was said to be a rebranded super soco cux.
I was curious about this, so I got in touch with Phil Campbell, who was still with the company at the time, and pointed him to the article, asking if the details were accurate.
He mentioned that the company had sold CKD kits to Taiwan previously, and so he thought it sounded plausible, however he said he would check with Charles Chen.
I didn't hear from him for a while, but he did later send a brief follow up message:
...Seems it is a trial CKD project -- no other info I can give you at this time...
So from the sound of it, as early as 2020 the people at Bird Auto were importing these CKD kits from Vmoto Soco and marketing them as Bird ES1 scooters.
Of course, these were probably not the only CKD kits being sold to India by this company. Over the past few years, numerous automotive sites in India (this being one example) commented on the similarities between a popular local e-motorcycle, the Revolt, to that of the Super Soco TC.
So there is good reason to suspect that the company has been quietly selling these CKD kits to India for years. It begs the question, exactly why is it that the company suddenly decided to mention this now?
It is possible that the sudden mention of these Indian sales numbers might be linked to the subsequent mention (on page 5) of the hefty pay rises for messrs Chen and Teo: some eye-candy to help keep the punters distracted while the management top-up their pay, though maybe I am being overly cynical here.
However, another possibility is that the sudden mention of the Indian CKDs might be connected to the complete takeover of Revolt Motors by Rattan India Enterprises early last month.
Anti-China sentiment runs deep in India, due to historical tensions between the two neighbouring giants, and so I think it is plausible that Revolt might have requested that Vmoto Soco keep mum on any commercial deals that were in place, sensitive about perceptions of a China connection. Possibly, the full takeover of Revolt by Rattan India may have voided any kind of non-disclosure agreement that had previously been in place between the two companies.
Whatever the reason, the mention of those 5,000 kits sold in India is nothing to write home about, as far as I am concerned. Keep in mind that these kits are low margin sales compared to the fully completed units, and this in a low-margin market.
It is also worth bearing in mind that Ola reportedly sold 20,000 units across India last month: the 5,000 units sold by Vmoto over a nine month period looks rather tepid by comparison.
That said, while the mention of the sales in India seem to be very much 'all sizzle, no steak', the international sales over the quarter were undeniably quite strong, as well as the forward order numbers.
My one concern here is that we might be at the high-point: if Europe winds up in a recession next year, as some forecasters are projecting, that could quite plausibly have an adverse impact on sales.
If I sound a little dour, be assured that I haven't abandoned all hope. The letters E, I, C, M and A might herald some pre-Christmas cheer.
In particular, I like the simple but clever logic behind the 'Stash' design. A motorcycle with a compartment to store a helmet is a neat idea. It also strikes me that this model could be ideal for two-wheeled shopping runs: once you've got the goods, out comes the helmet, and in goes the shopping.
Some posters have from time to time complained about how long it was taking the company to release the Stash, however, I think I can understand why they have been so cautious with the roll out.
One aspect of this company that I don't think is widely appreciated is the degree to which the success of Vmoto over the past five years has been driven by the popular appeal of one model, the TC, and the variants thereof.
The company is coy about releasing information relating to regional sales, as well as model specific sales breakdowns, but whenever I have stumbled across regional figures from moto websites, they usually point to the TC being the top seller.
I wouldn't have expected this: I would have thought that by now some other models would have gained some traction. I guess it goes to show that there is no magic formulae for producing a hit motorcycle: it requires a hefty does of luck, as well as skill.
So, we might get some indications in the week ahead as to whether the Stash will prove to be a smash. It looks like we could be set for an interesting show, at the very least.
(20min delay)
