Good comment from VYR to ACIM. I also appreciate the mature...

Good comment from VYR to ACIM. I also appreciate the mature input from posters like afd, and again the research gems that now and again turn-up from other posters (sorry, can't name you all, but you know who you are). I do get days though when I wonder why I bother, because repetitive stuff about some imagined barrier that the SP will crash through without any data behind it, or remarks such as 'who cares about India' on a parallel thread here today really make me shake my head. I don't know a lot about bikes, even though I have toyed with the idea of a small VMT EV as a fun way to trip into the local village; I have never actually driven a motorised bike, and as an investor couldn't care whether I am investing in bikes or jelly beans so long as the rationale is right. Career-wise I have controlled international businesses worth billions, and nowadays although I leave most of my investments to managed funds I will pick an interesting business case, in an interesting market space, get to know a bit about it and then stay with it. To provide enough potential and enough skin in the game to keep me focused I decide on the % of the business I want to own, and then top-up on buying opportunities to keep ahead of any dilution of my holding. That's where I am with VMT, and having held for a good few years I already have a nice return.

So someone like myself will not jump ship when the model still looks good, but I will voice my disappointment and more when the Company's Management appears to have limited vision and is negatively impacting shareholder value. Right now investors are rightly puzzled by what is happening, but it is not really a mystery. The provisional figures as reported this week were good, with profit a little ahead and the balance sheet in apparently good shape, but as is now familiar to us the presentation of the report was not compelling, and has been accompanied, as many have noted, by a dismally mis-handled product launch.

Someone asked about SP predictions for YE 2021. Well 12 months ago I predicted 45c for YE 2020, which turned-out to be 1c out. I have to say though that halfway through the year I thought that I had seriously under-estimated, because things were at last really going in the right direction. But then everything changed with a whole series of management 'own goals'. First the respected Chairman who had helped to guide VMT out of the mire suddenly resigned; we are told this was amicable enough, but a sudden announcement of this type was never going to be good news and there was no planned succession. Then we had the unpopular share placement, at a giveaway price and apparently for no good reason; there were far better ways to raise this capital, and in any event it still effectively sits in the bank as the Company is generating good free cash flow.
Then we have had a succession of pretty unprofessional communications, both in terms of PR and Investors, including one where a correction needed to be issued to the ASX. Then unpopular rewards for executives. Finally now a blown opportunity on the new model launch. So don't be surprised that investors are wary and that a few holders may have reached the end of their patience.

For this year, if we assume that Management will continue in the current mode for the time being, I would see a YE SP around 90c, driven not by what ought to be, but simply by like-for-like operating results that should be pretty decent. If we see an impressive appointment to the Board and the Company gets to grips with it's image problems, then that could go much higher. Likewise if World economies really start to motor again on the back of a successful international immunisation programme, etc. So there is much potential for upside but there are obvious caveats.

On that outlook I will stay aboard, but a lot depends on individuals' investment objectives, and none of us are the same. If your investment is worth millions and you can see it doubling in the course of the year, then that's a great return. If you are playing with just a small stake and want a very quick high-multiple return, then maybe not. And most are somewhere in-between. There are billions of bikes out there, all of which are EV conversion targets over the next few years on an increasing trajectory, and the truth is that right now in that context VMT's unit sales are statistically irrelevant. If nothing changes we will continue to progress within the current 'box', but break out of that box and the future can be what financial dreams are made of.

So whether you are crusty old businessmen/women or youthful dreamers, this is still a good place to be, but let's have intelligent contributions, try to learn from each other and not carry on the incessant ramping that drives us nowhere except nuts ! I really hope all your dreams come true this year. 2000.