Perhaps guys we can draw on some enthusiasm by some recent...

Perhaps guys we can draw on some enthusiasm by some recent comments from those who spend their life discussing commodity trends. I pin my hopes that these guys are on the right track. Because if we do not see a lift in demand for graphite, then the job for any graphite producing hopeful becomes all the more difficult.

Below are just a few snippets that I came across this morning for anyone who may be interested..


While 2023 has been a very tough year for the graphite sector the future looks much brighter, especially beyond 2025 when possible deficits are forecast to increase each year. For now, the flake graphite miners that are low-cost producers and who can develop integrated ‘flake to spherical graphite’ production stand to perform best. Several western graphite companies are rapidly advancing in this direction and are worth following closely.

Most analysts are forecasting a fairly balanced graphite market in 2024, with the possibility of some price recovery from the 2023 cyclical lows. UBS tips graphite prices to surge 50% from the 2023 lows and has set its long-term flake graphite price at $850/t. UBS forecasts natural graphite demand rising by six times this decade to reach a demand of 6.3 million tonnes pa, with a deficit forming from 2025.

The global Natural Graphite Market is witnessing a robust growth trajectory, with a significant surge from USD 15.5 billion in 2022 to an anticipated USD 24.7 billion by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 6.4%.8 Jan 2024

The long-term outlook for graphite

Looking out further graphite demand is set to surge this decade and next due to the expected massive rise in global EV sales and energy stationary storage (“ESS”) battery demand. Below are 3 demand forecasts that give a guide as to what may happen over the long term.

• Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts we will need 97 new 56,000tpa natural flake graphite mines from 2022 to 2035 to meet surging demand.
• The IEA forecasts flake graphite demand to rise 8-25x from 2020 to 2040.
• Trend Investing forecasts flake graphite demand to rise 17x from 2020 to 2037.