Hey Coxxy, I was going to reply to you this morning before more current topics of discussion swamped the thread but wasn't able to find the time. I won't talk about that as clearly enough has already been said about it from both sides and I have nothing to say that hasn't already been said.
I still want to talk about P66 though as there seems to be confusion on my end about it all. I was under the impression that P66 referred to the entire new inferred resource under where the processing plant was supposed to be that was discovered during sanitation drilling, named after the location of drill GBND0055 that first discovered the area. Are you referring to the inferred resource, of just the specific drill result? Sorry I'm confused on that point.
I wasn't suggesting that P66 will lift the entire basket price of all Nicanda Hill TMG to $2-2500, I was suggesting that based off the two reported drill results, and the metallurgical results for drill hole GBND0055 that were reported on the 14th of October, I can't find any evidence to suggest that the basket price of material from specifically the inferred P66 resource will be anywhere near $2-2500.
Where are you getting your information for flake distribution for P66? Are there drill results that I'm missing or are there only two reported?
On a basic analysis of the metallurgical properties of P66 and Ancuabe, you would assume that a similar price would mean similar flake distributions and purity levels? The reported concentration grade of P66 was 96.1%, while Ancuabe's was 98.2%. Also, in the drill results I can see, P66 only had 12% of flake above 300 micron, while for Ancuabe it is greater than 50%. I'm aware that 2mm flake was found at P66, but there mustn't have been a whole lot of it if the total contained graphite of >300 micron was only 12% of the basket. Also, how much more of a premium with pricing is there for 2000 micron over, say, 500 micron?
Can you see how I'm having a hard time reconciling the data I have access to with your basket price of $2000+?
Taking the flake distribution of P66 material from GBND0055 and applying MNS basket prices (which may I mention have been rubbished as "too high" by a select few on this forum), the basket price I get is $1080. See the table below:
View attachment 113305
MNS used $900 for flake between 150 micron and 180 micron, and $1400 for 180-300 micron. I have assumed an equal weighted distribution from 150-180 resulting in a $100 reduction on that price for 150-300 micron due to the inclusion of the 150-180 range. However this ignores the probability of the statistical phenomena of a normal distribution - where observations of a sample size converge around the mean (probably somewhere around 160 micron) - meaning that the price I have assigned to that 150-300 range is probably a little too high.
If I apply KNL basket prices to the reported flake distribution I get $1168:
View attachment 113306
Notably though, KNL have a much higher price set for medium flake (75 micron to 180) than MNS, which affects the basket price a lot more due to a high proportion of the graphite reported being in the medium category.
The metallurgical results I've used come from TON"s announcement on the 14th of October, MNS prices come from their PFS, and KNL's from their BFS. Anyone is free to check the numbers and let me know if I have made any errors.
Even with the KNL priced basket, that still falls a long way short of $2-2500.
I've shown you mine, now you show me yours
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(20min delay)