Yeah, I've long feared that outcome. This couple days, couple days suspension doesn't support that outcome, I don't believe. They only have about 15 or 20 business days of cash left in the bank from the looks of the last 4C. The previous SPP was open for a month as they really had to beat the pavement to get the response needed. I just don't think they have time left to do that. Perhaps if they had launched the SPP on Monday of this week then they would have made it, but it looks way too tight to me now. Obviously, in desperate times you don't know what could happen, but it seems to me that they are either in with a big money partner or nothing at this point. It's long been argued that this money raising would be the fundamental moment of truth for SAS and it looks like that argument is correct.
I am curious as to why the VS keeps extending, however. I'm 99% sure they wouldn't have entered the TH in the first place without the big money lined up. So that could result in maybe one VS as the big money lawyers work out the contracts. But these multiple extensions are tough to explain unless there are other significant owners who have a say, somehow, in this sale. First right of refusals, etc. And maybe there are some delays there as various parties consider raising money or protest in some way.
But if the are having trouble convincing an investor to sign, well it just doesn't make sense. A hope-and-pray approach to a large investor would need a ready SPP backup plan in case the investor discussions fell through. And given how much time the last SPP took and how much cash they now have, then it looks like they have passed the drop-dead date for an SPP. Therefore, it seems most likely to me that there are multiple parties, some looking to give money and some (perhaps) that gave money before, who are arguing over the terms now.
This can continue for maybe three or four weeks until the power company switches the lights off. The fact that they are nickle-and-diming the extensions a few days at a time would hint that they are negotiating over just a couple points and expect resolution at any moment.
Well, we'll find out soon enough. There's not enough money for this to last until the Round 1 of the footy.
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