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Ann: Voluntary Suspension Extension, page-16

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  1. 1,871 Posts.
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    Thanks for sharing @rama77 great to see your post as always.

    It's not speculation it's fact. I wrote about it end of last year, perhaps not on EUR thread... that lithium price is artificially low due to Chinese speculation on lithium price, pushing it down based on alleged oversupply from Chinese producers ramp up despite those supply are really not reliable and can't be made battery grade. Now that Chinese battery manufacturers has refused/returned those orders (that was in December or at least it started then) with CATL joining the fray as of late, it's indicative that lithium price reached the bottom and confirming that everyone in the industry was right - "oversupply" was incorrect, speculation was over blown, and indeed it is more that supply and demand are on balance, actually more demand than supply but not by a big margin.. although that is now likely to increase (demand will outstrip supply) as production, especially Aussie production has been cut back. So China did everyone a favour really, out of their greed to push lithium prices down as quickly as possible, despite that was always known to happen as the high prices were unsustainable, but now the recovery of lithium price will recover quicker than anticipated.. with an added headache of unfortunately due to production cuts, there will be supply shortage sooner than the supposedly forecasted 2025. It will come as early as next quarter. Everyone's adjusting their forecasts as we speak, if they haven't already. We did ours in December from the first coming to light of Chinese lepidolite mine faux pas. It's just hard to get truth or facts out of China, so many things are dubbed hearsay... but we have our own sources and trust their "hearsay" as gospel and followed it through. Now the numbers from last quarter are showing exactly what those hearsay meant and many are looking at those numbers, including CATL and thinking, yes those hearsay seem to be legit.

    Hope this makes sense.
 
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