You are living in the past. Things have happened that have...

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Roller62

8,980 Posts.

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11/04/23

10:26

Post #: 67211959
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Originally posted by Scarpa: ↑

The obsession with 2025 is pretty simple. It was the date previously most wanted here and what AVZ management were targeting as well through the Anns and discussions here prior to suspension. Since that time PLS has gone gangbusters and LTR has overtaken AVZ in terms ofdevelopment and supply queue. It is also the date where you are getting more players come into the lithium market - either through entrance (LTR) or expansion (many). As you get more players in the market prices for spodumene will settle, albeit above the DFS price AVZ is using.

Those in early get to maximise prices - ask PLS how much profit it is making - and makes funding easier and on top of that higher prices at the front end do a lot to the NPV and EPS ratios btw, as well as get cash flow to fund moves into downstream processing like hydroxide. All Anns and speculation on AVZ before the suspension were geared towards 2025. It is pretty simple too me - delay equals losing out on European and American markets, and free cash. In terms of spodumene supply and shortfall, yes plenty of scope for new entrants as I posted in the past and continue to post - for others refer Post #:65817444.

I am not changing goal posts here. Right at the start of this mess my concern remained the production date and entry and where in the queue one sits. Now, lets have a look at what is happening in Quebec since AVZ went into suspension - DRC is not the only place in the world with spodumene is my point as well and AVZ's place in the development queue is starting to look shaky. That is my point - missed opportunity to enter equals lower cash flow. Also refer https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/66110039/single as well.

All IMO

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You are living in the past. Things have happened that have delayed the startup. Sure 2025 would have been good to start by however any start up is good IMO. AVZ will still be a power house.

Last edited by Roller62: 11/04/23

AVZ Price at posting: 78.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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You are living in the past. Things have happened that have...

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