ARL 5.21% 50.5¢ ardea resources limited

Ann: Voluntary Suspension, page-49

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    Top 3 Cobalt Juniors To Consider
    http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4106878

    The current market cap of Ardea Resources is just AUD 61m, which is incredibly cheap when looking at their total resources, not to mention the AU$50m previously spent on the project (drilling etc). The reason the company is so cheap is the company is still in the early stages, laterite ore projects have higher CapEx and production costs (than sulphide ore), and perhaps because nickel prices are currently depressed making many nickel mines uneconomic at current prices (US$4.65/lb). Off course those mines don't have as much cobalt as Ardea has. A comparable cobalt laterite company is Clean Teq [ASX:CLQ] which has about 114,000 tonnes of cobalt, nickel and scandium at their Syerston project in Australia, and is about 16 months further advanced (a DFS due Q4, 2017) with a market cap of AUD 452m - 7.4 times higher than Ardea Resources. I have done some very basic and rough modeling on Ardea not yet to be relied upon. Purely as a cobalt mine with nickel and scandium as by-products, if we assume 5,000 tonnes pa cobalt production, at US$10/lb cost of production, US$25/lb sale price, 5% royalties, Capex at AUD 300m ($200m equity, $100m debt) then I get a valuation of A$4.07, or 4.47x upside. I plan to model properly once more accurate information comes to hand. Obviously Ardea's economics are sensitive to nickel and cobalt prices.
 
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