Understandably many AGY shareholders are trying to put a...

Understandably many AGY shareholders are trying to put a positive spin on the Qianyun share subscription falling over in that it will reduce dilution. However, Qianyun's shares were to be escrowed for 18 months meaning none of these shares would hit the market. The equity raising through Hunter Capital to be announced will introduce a heap of traders looking to flog this for pips which IMO will create a significant overhang that may last for many months. I'd be surprised if the share price didn't retreat back to 22c (or lower) in the coming days/weeks.

It remains to be seen if the off-take will proceed but IMO if they aren't taking up the $16.9m worth of 8.5c shares which are massively in the money, the future relationship of AGY/Qianyun seems uncertain to me. The share price was sub 10c before this deal was announced.

Some of the vital components of the project that the company needs to define/release to the market in order to de-risk the project:
- JORC resource (size, grade and depth)
- Flow rates and porosity/permeability
- Mg/Li ratio
- PFS or at the very least a SS outlining expected capex/opex

At a current market cap of ~$250m, IMO AGY has ran too hard, too quickly on too little information on the Rincon project resource and economics. IMO there are far better value lithium brine play/s on the ASX. Sometimes you just need to do a little research and not get caught up in the Hotcopper madness.

Cheers