NVA 8.89% 24.5¢ nova minerals limited

Ann: Voluntary Suspension, page-33

  1. 5,777 Posts.
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    Have to drill for 2 reasons:

    1. Upgrade RPM (M&I) so it can be used in full for PFS and BFS. Otherwise we jump backwards to Korbel only, which would mean still high CAPEX but lower payback metrics, thus lower probability of development. Chances are we can only gain funding if reaching BFS stage. A buy-out is a possibility earlier than that, but to develop and gain the NPV in full would require funding.
    2. Drilling RPM & Train surrounding areas for upside potential. Better to know what we have now rather than 3 years later, so we can make optimal medium term plans. If you only test those targets far later, they'd still have many years of definition ahead of them. There's an opportunity cost to delaying. Even if we accelerated development to the max (cutting down all exploration, cancelling RPM, trying to develop a low ROI Korbel (or the reverse), we'd still have years ahead to get it to development - for heap leach studies, PFS/BFS and waiting for the road).


    OreCorp DFS -

    A DFS stage resource should sell for a lower discount to NPV than an SS2 stage resource.

    If we were at BFS stage, we'd only be a short distance away from development - just needing funding, permits, and construction. Which would mean any major that acquired it would also be relatively close to production. Thus lower risk, so they can pay more for it.

    I don't think it makes sense for NVA to trade at the same multiple a DFS stage resource was acquired for (unless ours was superior, but SS2 is far from BFS).

    "Hopefully our upcoming MRE will add more meaningful RPM ounces allow to push the PFS NPV towards $1.5bn"

    PFS has to remove all inferred from the calculations. So it would need a pretty huge upgrade to M&I to increase NPV by so much (other than pit slope changes, heap leach etc). North-Uphill is the only area that I see as potentially delivering a big upgrade (Valley and South feel like they might stay majority inferred).

    But PFS was pushed back to 2025. I believe that's because the upcoming MRE will not have enough M&I for it so be an opportune time to release PFS (if Valley and South remain primarily as inferred, those pits would have to be removed from PFS) (plus still waiting on some studies - heap leach, processing technologies). Which means, the 2024 season of drilling will happen, then a new MRE (with sufficient M&I), then PFS. That is when we might see PFS released, with an upgrade to NPV (or at the very least, a reduction in CAPEX, allowing for easier funding/development).
 
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