Woah.. well... Just read back over the last few months posts here and elsewhere, and through the coy anns, and I think I've got a very rudimentary understanding of the company's current situation now - but please fill me in / correct me where needed. Dont read through all this drivel if you're looking for some answers to what you dont know - Im just airing my initial thoughts and would welcome any response. Seems like a good bunch of commentary mostly, Ive only ever put 1 person on ignore so I will welcome the good and bad, but pls provide support for it.
- The resource is good. It's accessible, of a marketable grade & in a growing market etc. I havent gone into the technicals of the resource yet because my eyes are blurring but thats tomorrow's job. It's big no doubt, the grade seems about avg, is that right? As I said Ill look at extraction methods etc tomorrow, but links(?)
- The ACTUAL business concept is solid. Vertical intergration, dual-income stream from the iron product (sorry not a technical desc.), the plan to get it from mine to port is feasible. I havent done DD on any of the partnerships or looked at the wider application of VSUN yet so can't comment, thats also for tomorrow.
- Market space looks to be accommodating. It is obv a hellava long time to go from the beginning to here. This is how these things go however, a big part is who survives that timeline and what the company looks like when its time to respond (highlighted next).
- The BIGGEST issue I see and hear is regarding management. I havent done DD on these guys yet (job #3) but it looks a little questionable. This isnt always a deal breaker but I mean.. 40% discount, with no SH participation
.. ouch! Feel for the LT holders who stuck around - you guys deserve a round of applause and I think the bitterness is justfied. (A side note on this is to not let that bitterness override your money-making intuition. My best profits this year have come from 2 holdings I had for 5+ years and although I missed the early entry opportunities I got over my resentment and, well... you know the rest
) Now, the question is can mgt be counted on to do the right thing THIS time or will it be another payday for the floaters. Mgt are clearly in it for themselves with performance issues like this.. Ive never seen such a low bar in my life - so they knew they were killing the SP when they did the raise. The fact that the SP is sold down everytime it gets around here is indicative of a few things most ppl already know so I wont specualte. The billions of shares isn't my biggest concern, its only 100mil MC so plenty of room to grow this year, once they let it that is. My biggest red flag is 100% to do with management. Its not the blown timeline - although this does reflect mgt somewhat, there are many other variables which blow that out and it does take longer than we all hope to get through some of this company building stuff - its that sneaky snake in the grass feeling I get when I read Bermuda's comments. He's obv level headed enough to see the crap thats gone on so it's a dimension that carries a weighted thought.
-Technically, yeah sure it looks like it could run. Just like it always has in the past. Then the capping comes. Anyone monitoring broker data or the top holdings to figure out whos selling etc. I havent seen that anywhere yet but keen to hear the latest theories from the group. As a rook looking at the chart for the first time today, I'd probably want to wait for a solid break up and a restest of circa 3.2c, but anything around 3c seems like a good area of value if you thought it was going up and couldnt wait. Or you could que at 2.5-6c and see if it comes back down.
- BFS being released... hmmm, I will just say on this that it can work both ways. No I dont think they need to have the additional subsidiary numbers included. Im pretty sure they can leave it out and still release the BFS. They will just include a section which details that aspect and its impact. Its easy to amend later as the technical work for the plan will have been done and the updates will be improvements but not critical aspects to the core concept, or maybe it is(? need to read back further). Having said that I think they will try and include it and its usually better to see it all there, especially when its been heralded as part of the plan from the start. MGT might be a good reference, I think they left it out. I dont see the same response as that though as that was being pumped and retailers all shat the bed (standard thesedays). If there are still big holders from the raise then they wont sell for under 3c at that time IMO, why then when they could now? If the numbers are good it might be what mgt and co are planning - I wouldnt put it past them.
- I remember reading in one thread that ppl were saying it won't get to mine so I would ask that those who sit in this camp can you outline your reasoning or paste a link to a previous thread for me to read (job#4). I havent gone over the latest 4c (job#5) so I dont know about spending, cash on hand or a expectation for the CR. Would love some insight here too. Scarpa apologies if that is in your links, I will go there tomorrow as my job#6.
Enough of the essay writing. Appreciate any responses. Thanks and GL.
(20min delay)