Personal view, but I think the SHAW clinics are not impacted by the m2 issue (presumably clients are using a private room). Also they have signaled SHAW will be EBITDA positive in 1H20, so hopefully it will pull its own weight from here
Again, IMO, the m2 seems to be a bigger issue in ICT as the store I walk past often (in Sydney suburbs) consistently has 1-2 people waiting outside (there was still a tape blocking the entrance last week). I don't see most other stores doing this (incl. optus), so I'm sure they have lost some customers from this, but presumably they have taken this into account. Their 1H21 forecast would have baked in 5G/iPhone sales into their forecast as well....iphone sales in particular has been a boost for them in the past
Just based on their forecast, they should deliver EPS of 11c in 1H, and if they can get back to a 'normal' 2H, they should be able to do another 6-7c which will give EPS of 17-18c.
I think the 12m in jobkeeper really provided a huge benefit this FY, however, the price of the share going forward will depend on how they are guiding (which they have not done in the past) - ICT needs to have low single digit growth (certainly not falling sales/margins/ebitda) and SHAW needs to show accelerated growth with decent margins (they have the cash, so they need to accelerate this).
VTG Price at posting:
$1.02 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held