VTG 0.00% 8.1¢ vita group limited

Ann: VTG HY18 Results Presentation, page-21

  1. 2,988 Posts.
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    BrentT
    Thanks for the detailed response, and my estimates were very high level.
    - 1H EBITDA of @20m translates into EPS of 7.3c
    - so if we assume FY EBITDA is ~40m (midpoint of guidance) then we get roughly EPS of ~15c

    Clear complexion as you indicated is immaterial from any perspective (top line, purchase price etc), and this is part of my frustration with mgmt......in my view, I can't see even 3-4 years down the track how this could add anything material to the top or bottom line, and in the interim, CC will just distract management and also investors. Using your numbers, 1H $4.7m revenues for CC is ~1.5% of total 1H revenues, so I'm struggling to see a huge impact down the line given the rent/wage/marketing that would be required to grow CC for a 10% EBITDA contribution.

    Per an earlier note - there is a reasonable & profitable business in VTG which will continue to generate profits, but margin pressure will continue, so where is the offsetting growth going to come from (I personally cannot see CC as value additive, and cost cutting is not a growth strategy).

    At this PE, they don't have the option of buying a business with a lower PE that has a higher growth rate, so in my view their only option is to somehow add complementary lines to the current business or leverage their footprint to expand beyond Telstra.
 
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