With the combination of the 1-year RCT results and the...

With the combination of the 1-year RCT results and the longer-term real-world results, there is no doubt Naturalvue performs as least as well as Misight in controlling myopia, although the jury is still out on how much better it may halt progression.

A bit of speculation then on value. First, some key dates:

• FDA approval in the US likely to be Q1 2026 at the earliest with 3 full years of RCT data - sales in the US likely to remain sluggish until then
• New CEO has until Oct 2026 to have the SP at 89c to collect all of the 425K performance shares subject to this requirement

Next, a couple of other observations:

• Sales in Europe/UK could get a real boost from the RCT result, but the downside here is that it will mostly be through Menicon Bloom - we don't know what the split in revenue is between VTI and Menicon, but clearly the margin for VTI must be less on this pathway.
• Menicon are really ramping up their activity around Bloom, and myopia is a key strategic direction in their latest annual report
• Average price for Thorney is 66c - nothing will happen unless Thorney want it to, they have made sure of that.

The biggest value inflection point would have to be on FDA approval one would think. A sale of the business before Q1 2026, most likely to Menicon (they must have a strategic imperative to protect their product offering) could look something like the below example that has some remarkable similarities with our current situation, with VTI having about Aus $15M in past year revenue.

Although this example is quite old, it does suggest x5 revenue in this industry is possible, and for a product that didn't have FDA approval I think.

That puts a sale price of about $1.50 - which I think would be cheap given the maturity of the myopia market now compared to 6 years ago. North of $2 I reckon if it happens before FDA approval - would Thorney be happy with just x3 their investment? Don't know.

Approaching FDA approval I reckon Menicon will be sweating. Misight quarterly sales from Q4 2020 to Q4 2023 went from US $2.5M to $22.5M - almost a 10x increase in 3 years.

VTI will be much more expensive after FDA approval, and with a further 2 years of revenue growth - what will Menicon do?

Will Thorney wait for the bigger value inflection point? I think so.

I'm guessing our new CEO will want to push the sale out to after FDA approval - build up his holding through taking bonuses in shares (as the COO and CMO have done), with plenty of time to get the job done before the Oct 2026 deadline on the initial signing allocation.

Two years to wait.