WAF west african resources limited

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$2.20

Ann: WAF Resource, Reserve and 10 year production update 2023, page-36

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mooselington

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24/04/23

19:05

Post #: 67435575
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Originally posted by mooselington: ↑

Would be great if someone could overlay any reported terrorism events, coups, etc. so we can see it on the chart.

My gut is there is a stronger correlation between those types of events and it impacting the share price for a couple of months before recovering (at least if there are not repeated events in that recovery period). Yes some correlation with the gold price, but I feel like the that pattern has been pretty consistent since I bought in 2013.

I think about WAF this way:
- gold price is pretty good.
- reserves are great.
- consistently meeting production guidance (no earnings shock).
- costs are stable.

If this mine was in Australia it would be worth a lot more. So it appears to me the geological risk weightings applied by analysts is what is stunting this share price. every time an event occurs (i.e. attack, coup etc) the analysts are validated in their risk rating and won't buy more.

I think what would make a difference is a few months of stability in the country PLUS a return to an elected government PLUS the US adding BF back to the duty free trade programme (which requires a constitutional government back in power).

hopefully that coincides with the production increase with new sites coming on board so we get a bit of a double re-rate...

Expand

Another significant attack over the weekend.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/24/dozens-killed-in-burkina-faso-attack-near-mali-border

POG steady.

WAF down.

Again supporting the argument that the geopolitical risk is the biggest driver.

The frequency of attacks is increasing and their impact is becoming greater...

having watched this play out for 10 years with these shares, I'd expect to see 90c first before I saw $1.10 again

Last edited by mooselington: 24/04/23

WAF Price at posting: 98.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Ann: WAF Resource, Reserve and 10 year production update 2023, page-36

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