No. Gas shows do not necessarily = net pay. The gas shows indicate that the rock is gas saturated which we knew already - WE1 had fantastic gas shows as it was drilled underbalanced but did not flow at a commercial rate on testing. Gas sthere aturated rock is not always pay though. If it wont flow, its not pay (in a conventional well at least).
Trying to put the picture together, after the first 8 m, they weighted up the mud to kill the small influx from the drilling break. In the absence of quality porosity (density log) data over the lower section, the drilling rate becomes a useful tool to highlight zones of better porosity. In your conversation with the MD did he mention whether there were any more drilling breaks? Happy to be corrected but from what has been released was only the one 35 m/hr drilling break? Over how many metres was it?
Obviously the mudlog and wireline logs are valuable IP to the JV and wont be public data for a few years so with the interest in the well there are going to be a hoard of onlookers trying to microanalyse every clue. Ronald Reagan said “Trust, but verify” (after a Russian proverb) and so should every market investor particularly when there may be a few different interpretations of a limited data set. The oil industry actually tends to be “Verify, then trust”!
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