I cleaned up my spreadsheet, and decided to stick with the...

I cleaned up my spreadsheet, and decided to stick with the transport limitation of 400,000 tonnes of kaolin, as the DFS did. I used FY26 as the base year to create a share valuation, because by then I deemed that the 400,000 tonne capacity would be in place, and all the options taken up into the share tally. The idea being to create an FY26 value in today's dollars (ignore inflation).

Because inflation was taken out of the metrics, I thought that a 10% rate of interest in my Present Value calculation was too high, so I changed it to 7%. I deleted all the years beyond FY26 because all the rows are similar, but for running totals. Keep in mind that 400,000 tonnes of kaolin is 800,000 tonnes of ore, which implies that    the 30.5 MT of reserves would last about forty years, so some multiple of EBIT can be used in FY26 to value the company (I used 8 times EBIT). On EBIT/Revenue, about 20% would be reagarded as normal, and 30% as good. 30% of the assumed $300 FOB price is $90.

I did not have to tinker with my model to force the result to fit into my intuitive SP of between 35 cents and 60 cents.  I have not studied the Breakaway analysis, but a fleeting look at it now, shows EBIT/Revenue to be 24.6/99.2, but adjusting that for ocean freight of 15.7 reduces the ratio to 24.6/83.5, which is 29.5%. My thinking is based on FOB pricing, not CIF that Breakaway used. Anyhow, I'll look at that report later, lest it alert me to something novel that affects my current model. I have not reached the point where I would be so brave as to suggest a valuation, all I want to do is justify holding WAK.

At the bottom of the table below, one has to work from the RHS to the LHS, because the base line is FY26, so it was convenient to stat there, then extrapolate in a right-to-left direction.

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6
0	Fin Year	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	Year	1	2	3	4	5
2	Plants	1	2	2	2	2
3
4	New plant	0.4	0.75
5	Earlier		0.6	0.25
6	Tot plant	0.4	1.75	2	2	2
7	[/B]
8	Ore MT yr	0.16	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.8
9	Ore cum	0.16	0.86	1.66	2.46	3.26
10
11	K99 MT yr	0.08	0.35	0.4	0.4	0.4
12
13	Rev 1 tonne	Rev $M ▼	Rev $M ▼	Rev $M ▼	Rev $M ▼	Rev $M ▼
14	$300.00	$24.00	$105.00	$120.00	$120.00	$120.00
15	EBIT tonne	EBIT $M ▼	EBIT $M ▼	EBIT $M ▼	EBIT $M ▼	EBIT $M ▼
16	$100.00	$8.00	$35.00	$40.00	$40.00	$40.00
17	$90.00	$7.20	$31.50	$36.00	$36.00	$36.00
18	$80.00	$6.40	$28.00	$32.00	$32.00	$32.00
19	$70.00	$5.60	$24.50	$28.00	$28.00	$28.00
20	$60.00	$4.80	$21.00	$24.00	$24.00	$24.00
21	$50.00	$4.00	$17.50	$20.00	$20.00	$20.00
22	$40.00	$3.20	$14.00	$16.00	$16.00	$16.00
23	$30.00	$2.40	$10.50	$12.00	$12.00	$12.00
24
25
26	Sharea +	282821885	33888889	16280695	167232813	27500000
27	Options	527724282
28					Est SP▼	FY26 based ▼
29		EBIT/Rev	EBIT tonne	PV=SP	EBITxMult	EBIT Shr
30	EBIT Mult	33.33%	$100.00	0.4626	0.6064	0.0758
31	8	30.00%	$90.00	0.4163	0.5457	0.0682
32	Interest	26.67%	$80.00	0.3701	0.4851	0.0606
33	7.00%	23.33%	$70.00	0.3238	0.4245	0.0531
34	Years	20.00%	$60.00	0.2776	0.3638	0.0455
35	4	16.67%	$50.00	0.2313	0.3032	0.0379
36		13.33%	$40.00	0.1850	0.2426	0.0303
37		10.00%	$30.00	0.1388	0.1819	0.0227