Below is an edited version of of the disordered list of thoughts in an earlier post. What I tried to do here is reduce information and opinion contained in the earlier list, and group topics in a more orderly way.
I focused on suggesting that WAK's best business interest may be to get option holders to exercise their options sooner, rather than later. A valid view could be to do the opposite, and encourage options to expire unused, thus minimising share dilution. My preference is the former, because by 23 November 2023, when many options expire, the story is likely to be so good, that all options would be exercised, so WAK may as well get as much of the funding now, rather than circa November 2023. It could park spare funds by repaying debt, and use its borrowing headroom if it needs funds later.
That is the nub of Point 1 below – the rest is substantially conversational filler that could lead to obviating some of the questions below, and it could lead to questions not suggested here. The words in blue font in the first sentence below come from the recent Investor Update, and were deliberately selected as cockle warmers. One can read into comments made about “key customers” that WAK is keen to get very close to them in a win-win relationship – this is an exceptionally important mindset to optimise the long term, especially with Japanese customers, but it is generally true elsewhere. The current shipping crisis is an opportunity for WAK to smell like roses.
The shipping crisis goes beyond burgeoning cost – containers are simply not available, and exporters have had to withdraw offering some kaolin categories for sale. Consider combining that first paragraph with 2.1 (the freight issue) as you opening gambit, because it is, I am guessing, a good starter,. My list of questions is ordered by my interests, but bluntly opening the conversation there is probably not optimal.
1. Option funding
The recent Investor Summary mentions that Stage 2 was contemplated as $13.6m to be funded out of cash flow. Could part of the 25c per share options potential funding be used to bring supply to key customers via a Stage 3 sooner, rather than later, or to expand the scope of Stage 3?
If increased funding could be advantageously used earlier, would Management consider a Market Update to encourage the conversion of options to further shorten the lead time of Stage 2, and bring Stage 3 forward?
It goes without saying that funding received via the early exercise of options that is not put to immediate use could decrease debt?
Management may well do nothing, because the recent Investor Summary and the FY22 reporting may suffice. On the former, I hardly read read the Investor Summary, because I had justified buying in at a higher SP, so I hurled $30K at the CR with little need to be convinced. I imagine many other shareholders did likewise, so one should not presume that they are as clued up as you might think they are.
2. Related issues
The primary issue is Point 1 – increase development tempo and obtaining funding to do so. What follows fleshes out the first paragraph of Point 1.To a degree the questions suggested are mere conversational lubrication,
2.1 Freight
How long can we expect WA Kaolin's freight advantage to remain significant?
If competitors are struggling to get containers, is WAK sure of getting them?
2.2 $300+ prices
The media has reported that WA Kaolin has experienced better-than-expected pricing, and $300 was mentioned, but not whether it was CIF or FOB. Has pricing improved on an FOB basis?
3 Diversity of target sectors and geographies
Diversity covers a number of issues – hence a Section 3.
3.1 Paper filler
Is paper filler a genuine market for WA Kaolin, or is it a brightness benchmark that allows WA Kaolin Kaolin to know that it can easily supply product to less demanding sectors?
If WA Kaolin can sell everything it produces via K99 dry processing in the coming years, would it make sense to delay wet processing required for paper fillers.
3.2 Fibreglass filler
Increased demand for kaolin filler for fibreglass has contributed to the shortage of kaolin filler for other sectors. Is this relevant to WA Kaolin?
3.3 Sector and product diversity via distributors
Could WA Kaolin enhance sector and product diversity by exporting to firms like CMP Tianjin who have facilities to tailor specified products for end-users?
3.4 Australia
How significant is the Australian market, and how does it differ from the export market?
Other than building products like plasterboard, is WA Kaolin likely to sell kaolin to local manufacturers of white cement and sanitaryware, and perhaps farming and gardening suppliers of agricultural and gardening products?
3.5 Optimising grade mix
Is WA Kaolin focusing on selling the lower-end grades of kaolin, because it is easy to sell top-end product at premium prices into Japan and other advanced markets, and lower-end grades to other destinations?
4 Break-even and expansion
4.1 Cash flow break-even
The recent Investor Presentation suggests operational cash flow will be realised soon enough to cover Stage 2 investment. Is there a view when, considering depreciation and all expenses, reported profit can be expected?
4.2 200,000tpa step
Is there a view, which may change, on the tempo of 200,000mt steps beyond 400,000 in coming years?
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