f32sport Taking "revenue" to mean sales valued on an FOB Kwinana...

f32sport

Taking "revenue" to mean sales valued on an FOB Kwinana basis, I would pick $300 per tonne. I have not focused on WAK recently, so how many tonnes it can extract and export, I cannot say.

It is not only demand for product that is the issue, there is transport capacity and staffing of the plant. The potential of 200,000 tonnes a year at 25 tonnes an hour requires working 24 hours a day, seven days a week and something like 47 weeks a year. 25*24*7*47 = 197,400.

If Management plan to have the second plant up and running in late CY2023, one could assume the first plant would be running at nearly 200,000 tonnes a year. In the absence of knowing better, I would draw a line between a third of that at some near-date, and 200,000 tonnes a year as at 30/12/2023. Working in moths that would start a7 $1.67m a month, and end at $5m a months.

Earnings before tax may be a third of that. However, all this is conjecture, and probably bullish, so use $1m to $4 from October 2022 to $4m by December 2023. This could be far from reality, but Management would know, and they may deign to tell us one day.