I have been watching the trading fairly closely since BPT have made their bid. And as we can all see, WGO's SP has traded consistently above the 20c BPT offer, with significant volumes as well. Clearly the market feels a higher offer will be forthcoming.
And now that WGO have disclosed they opened a dataroom for multiple parties, not just STX and BPT, makes me think the accumulation since BPT announced their offer, is genuinely one of the other parties. Since 14th Nov we have had ~81m shares traded... all above 20c mind you... and it takes ~61m shares to get 5% in WGO... so begs the question... who is buying? And will we see a substantial shareholder notice soon.
Could very well be MIN... they have flagged to the market that they are keeping an eye on this corporate activity and have big plans for their Energy division. Could they buddy up with STX and consolidate the Perth Basin? They absolutely have the balance sheet strength to go head to head with BPT and win. Be it cash of scrip.... unlike a few years ago with their tussle over AWE... MIN are in a very dominant position now. Chris E is also a very influential man in WA. Can he outplay Kerry S?
STO is, IMO, a strong potential acquirer. They have significant issues with reserves in WA and would be keen, as a large gas supplier in WA, to bolster their gas reserves, especially one (West Errugulla) that is relatively close to development and cashflow.
I don't think Mitsui are in this play. They will be watching to see if BPT are successful... and IMO would likely take aim at STX, with the aim to continue their own successful PB JV. They also have the cash/BS strength to take out STX, unlike BPT (IMO)
The dark horse is Regal. What are their intentions? They have, from what we know, 7.96% current holding in WGO... Could they be acquiring on market? The fact is, the majority of their 97.37m shares in WGO were acquired above 20c. They won't be keen to take a loss. Could they be prepared to partner with a bigger player who is prepared to make a higher offer? Could that be MIN?
Also worth considering, Regal, as a significant shareholder, could call a S249D... and attempt to remove the board... and replace with their own nominees (who that could be would be very interesting)... and vote down the BPT proposal and recommend their own. FYI Regal are currently doing just this with another of their investments, LVT... a similar scenario with that company undergoing corporate activity. Worth a look over to see how it works.
So my gut tells me we will soon be seeing some more action... I think another suitor will show their hand very shortly... 1-2 weeks I think.
Interesting to see how this plays out.
GLTA
WGO Price at posting:
23.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
