Can't believe the shorters, they'll be watching the progress closely and may plan to cover before the announcement of its completion / water restored. Wouldn't be surprised. That way they can minimise the risk of a relief rally when water is restored and uncertainty is reduced.
Also, my understanding is that LAMP's yearly output is capped by the Malaysian government agreement? A fixed yearly quota?
This should mean LYC truly does have the opportunity to catch up for full year... where they may have hit the output cap, and had to limit output anyway later on, without this disruption impacting output near the start of the financial year?
Hopefully, they will also be able to catch up to guidance output throughout the year under a more favorable spot pricing environment (for the sale contracts which are linked to this), where, on a cashflow basis, the impact could be negated entirely. We will see!
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