Lynas has never been able to make more than 6000T an year. and have barely broken 1500 Tons .a Q in any Q never mind 1800T next rate. In fact they broken 1600 tons only once in a Q that was 1687 in Q3 2022. To assume they will do it now is a leep of faith. I am not saying they cannot achieve it. What I am saying that it is very unlikely based on years of production history. Also there is a 90 day lag between Street prices and Revenue so Q2 will have the lowest prices of the year to work with. Will the water problem being fixed help ? Yes it will. What you need to do is figure out what profit and revenue will be for SAR and AR.
As far as shorter. I do understand that it is very popular to blame shorters whenever prices don't do what the dreamers want.
Look at this chart. Can you explain to me why you think shorts have a large impact on price. Note total shorts is delayed 4 days. you can fill out chart in the next few days then explain when you want. Most people think it take short to be 10% of shares to cause a short squez which you describe. 23M ./ 902 M is about 2.7%
| Date | Close* | Change | Volume | Total shorts M | Short change |
|---|
| 1 | 20-Sep-22 | 8.14 | 0.38 | 5,035,932 | | |
|---|
| 2 | 19-Sep-22 | 7.76 | -0.04 | 3,048,604 | | |
|---|
| 3 | 16-Sep-22 | 7.8 | -0.43 | 7,514,432 | | |
|---|
| 4 | 15-Sep-22 | 8.23 | -0.12 | 4,989,617 | | |
|---|
| 5 | 14-Sep-22 | 8.35 | -0.44 | 6,729,697 | 23.3 | -1 |
|---|
| 6 | 13-Sep-22 | 8.79 | -0.03 | 5,100,346 | 24.3 | 1.3 |
|---|
| 7 | 12-Sep-22 | 8.82 | -0.01 | 3,834,447 | 23 | -0.3 |
|---|
| 8 | 9-Sep-22 | 8.83 | -0.15 | 5,250,875 | 23.3 | 0.1 |
|---|
Just a point that MAY be true. I think AL said in Q4 CC it was pump problems. I Now it is Pipe problems. Just my guess they installed a bigger pump to supply more water which means more pressure. then old pipes started breaking. In the big cities around me the pipes are old some are made with pitch covered Wood. Very common for something to be fixed and a few miles away something breaks. Often pressure but it has also happened when they reverse flow in a section when they bring in new supply to a new point in the section.. A pump problem is easy to fix a Pipe problem just keeps going on till you replace most of it.
Here is AL explaining to
David Deckelbaum what has been going on with some history
"
They have varied, the reasons for the outages, through -- from dikes collapsing in the dams or pumps not working as efficiently as they could do. There's always another reason for it. But the outcome is that for someone who uses a lot of water as we do, it's very challenging. We have 3 very large process water storage plants on site. The third was built in, I think, it was 2017 after we'd had a previous really sort of challenging period. As well as that, there were some disused pits sort of close to the plant, and we've set up pipes from there so that we can bring in water from those areas as well."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523975-lynas-rare-earths-limited-lyscf-ceo-amanda-lacaze-on-q4-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript
(20min delay)