Don't be discouraged by the down-ramping nonsense ... there's a...

Don't be discouraged by the down-ramping nonsense ... there's a lot of nonsense washing around generally.

I agree with you that a CR will probably happen sooner than many posters here would prefer - good old confirmation bias is causing many to wish for things to happen in the order permit -> drill result -> CR
... because that of course gives current holders the hope of two SP bumps before dilution and who doesn't prefer two bumps over one?

Personally i think permit -> CR -> drill result is more likely, but, same as anyone outside the BNL board ... that's purely a guess, if i was them, with only sufficient funds to cover a couple of drills and contingency, i'd be very tempted to CR some insurance money earlier rather than later and, given the short timescales i wouldn't rule out a 'sophisticated' raise either. Be a bit of squealing if they go that way.

I differ with you though about the significance of the 'water drill' announcement ... today's announcement surprised me ... water-drilling has a chequered history and is regarded as cowboy practice in some quarters ... a way to get around or pre-empt a formal permit. But i think it's simply BNL doing some deck-clearing.

Think you are correct in stating that BNL was under no obligation to release the water results to market - far as i can see they are a side-arrangement purely between BNL and the rancher and i doubt very much there's any obligation in any lease to publish results!

Likely anyway the water wells are in locations to favour the leaseholder and the He wells will be in entirely different locations. We won't hear of them again.

My guess is we are only hearing about the water-drilling today because BNL now have a pro-forma permit and no Colorado regulator noses will be put out of joint by BNL appearing to be announcing drilling results prior to approval. Or, less likely, BNL hoped for a pre-permit SP bump. Who knows?