re: Ann: Wave Energy to Create 14,380 Austral... It's nice, and...

re: Ann: Wave Energy to Create 14,380 Austral...
It's nice, and helpful but I think the ASX was a little over the top marking it as being "price sensitive".

In isolation the announcement is good, but i've got no doubt that this announcement is just the beginning of a broader campaign that will include several/many more annuncements before the August REDP grants are given.

CNM are fantastic at "building a case", whatever the objective - getting a licence area, getting the WA govt grant and so on. They have a strong enough case already to secure an REDP grant but I'm sure this WWF announcement is calculated to set the framework for more announcements in the next 6-8 weeks.

This announcement outlines the broader scope of wave power potential in Australia (yes i know we know that already, but CNM are following a systematic approach to state their case again). After reiterating that broad case, they will soon begin to narrow the focus to CNM's claims within the sector. In the next 6-8 weeks they will hammer home their specific claims. I'd expect that to include (as i've said before) the full Environmental Impact assessment for Albany, a preliminary environmental assessment for Port MacDonnell in SA, the announcement of their "investment decision" (no doubt for Albany) and perhaps, but not necessarily, an update on CETO III.

I also expect an update or new announcement regarding the potential for an international site. It will ensure there is pressure on the fed govt that if CNM dont get an REDP grant, another country/international site is ready to go and the Australian govt will be at risk of once again squandering an opportunity to show leadership in renewable energy. In the end, it's not the REDP committee that makes the decision on who gets the REDP grants, it is the Minister's decision, which, given the authoritarian way the fed govt operates, means it is Rudd's decision!

Which is not say we wont see any price weakness still to come. There are no doubt a few 200,000+ sell order cannons still to be fired (overhang from the recent placement), but my bet is that they will be overwhelmed without too much trouble over the next month or two.