Oddly - and despite the mutterings from the rascally rabble here - I feel strangely comfortable with my updated holdings (albeit, now equating to the GDP of a small African nation). Cut through all the BS today, and what we hear is that -
(a) they will not cap raise, and have no need to (so the dilution freaks can now sit back down and shut it); (b) they will realise every single dollar of those Sonangol receivables (so the net cash position will actually improve over the coming months), and their relationship with Sonangol and CUPET remains good, workable, and forward looking; (c) they will clean and open up A2 to produce from Unit 1B by the end of September, and finalise (and test) shipping logistics by the end of year; (d) they will knock 7 new holes into the upper units by the end of next year, "hopefully sooner", and stimulate flow on each one (assume 2,500 x 7 = 17,500 bopd, more or less [to speculate on the exact number would be stupid])' (e) some of the new pads have been approved, and some are in the process of being approved. Pad infrastructure on the approved pads can proceed. (f) they would still prefer to remediate A3 (clean up Marti/Alameda, with API circa 20) than sidetrack the top into 1B. (g) reserve estimates have been increased; and
Strangely
(h) the oil is still in the ground. it has not been abducted by Aliens, nor has Rochy sucked it out with a strawer. It is still there, accessible, saleable, and some of the unknowns are slowly becomming knowns. Contracts are being negotiated, transport logistics organised, and rigs being contracted (AP eluded to Sherritt-1 being available by the end of September - which probably coincides with a new pad being ready). Hopefully two holes in a new pad (shallow, "easy stuff") by the end of 2024 (or thereabouts).
